The great economic success story of any age... ..任何年龄的巨大的经济成功的故事
The Chinese economic miracle 中国经济奇迹的
is the story of my generation 是我们这一代人的故事
and probably my children's generation as well. 也可能是我孩子的代
..the relentless rise of China. 无情的中国的崛起
It's like some sort of mad programmer's vision of the future, 就像某种疯狂的程序员的未来的憧憬，
all those flashing lights. 那些闪灯
Now, China's downturn and collapsing shares 现在，中国经济衰退和股票崩溃
have caused global financial panic. 造成全球金融恐慌
FOGHORN BLARES 笛blares
But could China's economic woes be much worse than anyone's admitting? 但中国的经济困境可承认是比任何人都更糟？
Another empty factory. Absolutely nothing going on here. 另一只空厂绝对不在这里发生
The economy has been on a relentless 中国经济一直在无情的
and continuous slide in economic growth. 经济增长和持续下滑
There is no painless exit from this problem. 没有无痛退出这个问题
CHEERING 喝彩, 欢呼
However, Britain is forging ever-closer links to China. 然而，英国正迅速向中国更紧密的联系万千
It's supposedly a new golden age. 这是一个新的黄金时代
Good business, or mad, bad and dangerous to our prosperity? 疯了，很坏，而且危险或生意好，对我们的繁荣？
I'm beginning to feel sick. 我开始觉得不舒服
No ears popping, 没有耳朵弹出，
just a sense of overwhelming nausea. 只是一种压倒性恶心
'The Canton Tower - China's tallest.' '的广州塔-中国最高的
Bloody hell! 该死！
Ugh! 啊, 唷
'Almost a third of a mile high...' 一英里高几乎三分之一的..''
I don't like heights, 我不喜欢，
and I certainly don't like this height. 我也不喜欢这个高度
'..towering above the world's biggest metropolis.' “上面峥嵘世界上最大的城市"
Blimey, look at what the Chinese have achieved. 嘿，看看中国所取得的成功
One of its many megacities, 它的许多大城市之一，
40 million people living in relative prosperity 40万人生活在相对繁荣
where 20 years ago this was dirt-poor farmland. 20年前，这是非常贫穷的农田
From poverty to the world's second biggest economy. 从贫穷走向世界的第二大经济体
CAR HORNS HONK 汽车喇叭汽车喇叭
What a transformation. 怎样的转变
New railways, airports, roads, skyscrapers. 新的铁路、机场、公路、摩天大楼
All built in a few short years. 全部建立在短短几年中
And China's growth has driven the world's - and ours. 和中国的发展已经和我们的世界的
But the economic engine may be seizing up. 但是经济的发动机可被抓住了
In 2014, China's stock market began to soar. 在2014年，中国股市开始飙升
The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges hit record highs. 在上海和深圳证券交易所创下新高
It was the mother of all bull markets. 这是所有牛市的母亲
Everyone wanted a piece of the action. 每个人都想从中分一杯羹
90 million ordinary Chinese stormed in, 90万普通中国冲了进来，
including Zhu Qiushi. 包括朱求是
My colleagues, my friends, 我的同事们，朋友们，
told me that, er, "OK, the index is getting “告诉我，呃，好吧，这个指数越来越
"very, very good right now, and some stocks is getting, like, crazy." “现在很好，很好，有些股票不饶人，就这样，疯了"
It seemed a one-way bet, underwritten by the government. 这似乎是单向押注，由政府垫资
The market was going up, people just started piling in. 在市场上，人们就开始打桩中
Fundamentally, it was all just about the idea that 从根本上说，那只是对这个主意
the Chinese government wanted the market to heat up 我国政府要市场上热了
and therefore they would never let it crash. 因此，他们不会让它坠毁
But in fact, Beijing had lost control. 但事实上，北京已经失去了控制
People were buying stocks with borrowed money, 人们用借来的钱购买股票，
provided by so-called "margin lenders." 由所谓的“边缘放款人
We actually had underground margin lenders that were created, 我们实际上有地下融券放款人，被装，
that started feeding this, so they were outside ，开始这喂养，于是他们就在外面
the normal regulatory structure, and so they were off the radar screen. 正常的监管架构，所以他们从雷达屏幕上
So you think the authorities weren't aware of these 所以你觉得当局才意识到这些
basically unofficial lenders? 主要非官方放款人？
I don't think they had an idea of the magnitude 我不认为他们有了一个主意的大小
of how important they had become at that point. 他们变得是多么重要，在这一点
- NEWSREADERS: - 'A financial earthquake - in China - the stock market has...'
'The main index in Shanghai closed today more than 8% down...' “今天在上海的主要指标关闭..往下超过8%"
'Hundreds of billions of pounds are wiped off shares around the world...' “数千亿英镑..全世界都擦掉股份"
June 2015. China's stock market crashed. 到2015年6月中国的股票市场崩溃
We can see a big depression from June 8th, 我们可以看到从6月8日的经济大萧条
and then it's getting worse and getting worse, and here is the bottom. 然后它就会变得更糟，而且越来越严重，这里是底部
I lost half of my total one-year income in the stock market. 我失去了我一年的总收入的一半在股票市场中
Yeah, so it's horrible, it's, er...hard to imagine. 哦，那太可怕了，这是呃..难以想象
For over 30 years, the Chinese government had seemed to have, 30多年来，中国政府似乎有了，
well, an immaculate economic touch. 好吧，一场完美的经济联系
But now, Beijing floundered. 但现在，北京挣扎
You would have contradictory policies 你会有矛盾的政策
released by different agencies on the same day. 由不同的机构当天发布
OK? And so they hadn't even bothered to pick up the phone 好吗？于是，他们甚至没有想到要拿起电话
and talk to each other, apparently. 显然并互相交谈
So this creates a lot of concern about who's running the show there, 所以这就造成了很多关心谁是跑到那儿去演出，
who's setting financial policy 是谁设置的财政政策
in really one of the world's most important economies. 真的是世界上最重要的经济体之一
Since last summer, China's money markets 自去年夏季以来，中国的货币市场
have been dangerously volatile, 有危险的不稳定，
spreading anxiety around the world. 世界各地散布恐慌
China's stock market boom and bust 中国股票市场的繁荣与萧条
was eerily reminiscent of Wall Street's 1929 Crash, 是极其让人想起1929年华尔街的崩溃，
which ushered in economic devastation 经济破坏中迎来了
in much of the known world. 世界上大部分的已知
So, the big question is - what does China's market crash foretell? 所以，最大的问题是，中国的市场崩盘预示什么？
China's government has sought to downplay the scale of the problem. 我国政府已经试图淡化问题的规模
Officially, the economy is growing at 6.9%. 官方的经济增长速度是6.9%
That's its slowest in 25 years, 这是25年来最慢，
but still much faster than us in the West. 但仍比我们这些西方国家的快得多
But how true is that? 那是多么真实？
Challenging the official version is not for the faint-hearted. 挑战官方的说法是不是胆怯
Dozens of Chinese financial journalists 几十中国金融记者
have ended up in jail. 已经结束了在监狱里
And it can be hard for foreign journalists 并且它可以努力为外国记者
to get to the places that tell the whole story. 去的地方，告诉我们全部的故事
I'm on my way to the bleak and frozen north-east, 我正在路上的凄凉和冷冻东北，
near the border with North Korea, 与朝鲜的边境附近，
a place seen by few foreigners. 被几个老外
This is the city of Yingkou. 这是市营口
During the boom times, it built on a mind-boggling scale. 在繁荣时期，它建在一个难以置信的规模
It spent around £7 billion on urban renewal - 它花了约70亿？在市区重建-
new housing, highways, 新的房屋，公路，
even an Olympic-themed sports centre. 即使是一个主题的奥林匹克体育中心
All these buildings look completely deserted, 所有这些建筑物看上去完全被遗弃，
goodness only knows why they built them. 不知道他们为什么要建
I can't see a single construction worker, 我不能看到一个建筑工人，
despite the fact I can see endless half-finished buildings. 尽管我可以看到建筑物无尽只完成了一半
Nothing much going on. At all. 多的事要做什么都没有
Nothing. No activity. 没有任何活动
Yingkou's new city is just one of hundreds in China lying empty. 新的城市营口躺在中国的几百就是空的
Ghost towns. 鬼城
Trillions of pounds of construction and investment 万亿英镑的建设和投资
kept China's economy growing, 中国的经济增长，
but far too much was built, and in the wrong places. 但是太多建，在错误的地方
Buildings like this one will never be finished, 这样你会不会结束，大楼
others will never be occupied, 其他人将不会占用，
and those who financed them will lose a fortune. 和那些谁出资将损失一大笔钱
I spent an age trying to persuade anyone to discuss 我花了一个年龄试图说服任何人来讨论
what's going on here. 这是怎么回事
No-one would appear on camera. 没人会出现在镜头前
In fact, I'm seeing little evidence 事实上，我看小的证据
there's anyone here at all. 都是这里的人
So, back to the massive hotel - 因此，回到了大量的酒店式
where I appear to be the only guest - 在我看来唯一客
for something of a lonely night in. 孤独的夜晚的的东西
FOGHORN BLARES 笛blares
The next day, it's off to Yingkou's port, 第二天，它是去营口港，
one of China's biggest. 中国最大的之一
A huge facility for unloading raw materials, 一个巨大的原材料装卸设施，
but there's almost nothing going on, 但是，几乎是没有什么了
because heavy industry and construction are in trouble. 因为重工业和建筑就有麻烦了
The stereotypical china we recognise are huge container ports 我们认识到中国的传统有巨大的集装箱港口
sucking in materials, spewing out exports. 在材质、喷涌吸出出口
But trade here and everywhere in China ain't what it was. 但是在中国，在世界各地的贸易是什么
And here, there's a serious recession. 这里，有一个严重的衰退
Now, officially, the economy in this area is growing at 3% a year - 现在，正式，这个地区的经济正以每年3%的增长
faster than Britain. 更快比英国
But to be frank, that's inconceivable. 但是坦率地说，那是不可能的
Times are really hard, I mean, exports which have powered 有时真的很难，我的意思是，出口，有动力
the Chinese economy for many, many years 许多，许多年来，中国经济
actually, are down, year over year. 其实，比去年同期有所下降，
The economy has been on a one-way street, really, 经济上了一条单行道，真的，
a relentless and continuous slide in economic growth. 无情的经济增长和不断下滑
For the region's thousands of small private steel companies 对这一地区的数千个私人小钢铁公司
and their workers, it's agony. 和他们的工人，它的痛苦
Foundries in rust and ruin. 在铁锈和废墟中铸造
So the downturn has already had a very severe effect. 所以经济衰退已经进行了非常严重的影响
I'm in a seemingly bustling town with factories on both sides 我在一个看似繁华的城镇有工厂两侧
of the road, but almost all of them are deserted, closed down. 之路，但几乎所有的人都是荒凉的，关闭
It's a bit miserable. Another empty factory. 那太惨了点另一个空的工厂
Absolutely nothing going on here. 绝对不会在这里
Just weeds growing. 刚刚杂草的生长
For the people, desperate times. No work. 负责的人，绝望的时期不工作
Ni hao, thank you so much for doing this, it's so kind of you. 你好，谢谢你这么做，你真太好了
'And just talking about what's going wrong “就谈什么错
'can land you in deep trouble. ’能使你陷入麻烦
'But one brave laid-off steelworker took the risk.' “但是一个勇敢下岗钢铁冒的风险"
In this area, are there a ny businesses 在这方面，有了纽约的企业
being created at the moment? 目前正在建立？
HE CHUCKLES 他笑着
Are you being helped at all? Are you getting any training? 你需要帮助吗？你得到任何训练吗？
DOG BARKS 狗叫
Most of China's workers get no unemployment benefits, 中国的大部分工人没有失业救济金，
or any help finding work. 或任何帮助找到工作
They have to scratch a living where they can. 他们要抓的住在这里他们可以
LAUGHING: 笑称：
'Any attempt by the government to create new jobs here ''任何尝试，政府要创造新的就业机会在这里
'doesn't seem to be working. "好像坏
'So no surprise, perhaps, that China "所以没有惊喜，或许，中国
'doesn't publish unemployment rates for places like this. “不公布失业率这样的地方
'China's rust belt looks poisoned, ruined.' "中国铁锈地带的样子中毒了，毁了”
But there ARE businesses providing employment to millions. 但也有企业提供就业机会以百万计
Industrial goliaths owned by the government - -工业goliaths归政府所有
the so-called state-owned enterprises. 所谓的国有企业
They collectively employ as many people as live in Britain. 他们集体雇用尽可能多的人住在英国
And their vast production lines made the stuff that rebuilt this country. 和他们庞大的生产线，重建这个国家的东西了
But many are now in deep trouble. 但许多人现在陷入了困境
The term that analysts like to use 分析师想使用的术语
is a very technical term - -是很专业的术语
zombie companies, where they are not really 僵尸公司，他们不是真的
living, thriving companies that are making money, 生活，繁荣的公司都赚钱，
but they're not companies 但他们不是公司
that get a stake through the heart and disappear. 的心，得到了通过股份和消失
Despite a collapse in demand, the zombies are remorselessly 尽管的需求崩溃，植物大战僵尸都义无反顾的
producing more and more - -产生越来越多
far more than the world could ever need. 世界需要的远不止
So their losses are escalating, 所以他们的损失正在升级，
as are colossal, potentially toxic debts. 由于是巨大的潜在有毒债务
They employ a lot of people, 他们采用了很多人，
they have the lion's share of capital invested, 他们有最大的份额的资金投向，
and they're very inefficient, and they don't make a lot of money now, 而且他们非常低效，现在他们赚不了很多钱，
and they're a drag on the economy. 他们经济的拖累
State enterprises have picked up, accumulated huge amounts of debt, 国有企业有拾起，积累了大量的债务，
and actually have to keep borrowing money now 现在却要借钱
to pay interest in principle on the loans they already have. 原则上支付利息的贷款，他们已经有了
The government talks of putting these living-dead companies 政府把这些活的公司的谈判
out of their misery, 从他们的痛苦，
but so far, it's mostly just talk. 但到目前为止，它只不过是交谈
Beijing is painfully aware that its state-owned manufacturers 北京是痛苦地意识到其国有企业
expanded too far and too fast, 膨化太远，太快了，
and that many are generating big losses, ，许多都产生了较大损失，
adding to the country's excessive debts. 过度增加国家的债务
But fixing them is politically impossible, 但固定他们在政治上是不可能的，
because it would involve sacking millions of workers. 因为它会牵涉到数百万工人被解雇
Huge loss-making zombie companies, a stock market bubble, 巨大的亏损的僵尸公司，股票市场泡沫，
the biggest building binge in history. 历史上最大的建筑热潮
China has been on a frenetic spending spree, 中国一直在一个狂热的消费热潮，
but it was financed with borrowed money. 但它是用借来的钱资助
So the increase in its debts has been terrifyingly big. 因此，增加的债务假摔可怕
They've grown faster than what led to our great crash in 2008. 他们已经快是什么导致了我们伟大的在2008年暴跌
And still China's debt mountain is expanding... 山是中国的债务还扩大..
..faster than its economy. 快于经济的
We have one of the biggest debt bubbles the world has ever seen. 我们有世界上最大的债务泡沫之一从未见过的
We continue to add two-and-a-half to three trillion 我们继续增加两个半到三万亿，
to that number every year. 每年到那个号码
That is weighing on growth, and until we deal with this problem, 这是称重对经济增长，直到我们解决了这个问题，
that's going to continue. 那是会继续下去
Senior Chinese officials are usually reluctant to discuss 中国高层官员通常不愿意谈论
what's gone wrong. 什么错了
But I had the privilege of meeting 但我有特权的会议
a top economic policymaker who was unusually candid. 一位高级经济决策者异常真诚
I cannot rule out the possibility 我不排除这种可能性
that some of the investments were not very efficient. 有些投资不是很有效的
But overall, I would say the investments, 但是我想说的投资，总体来说
in infrastructure particularly, in the hinterland provinces, 在内地省份，尤其是在基础设施
would have been necessary. OK. 就是很有必要的
Some of this may lay idle for a number of years, 这会躺的一些闲置了很多年，
but eventually they would, er, be contributing to the local economy. 但最终他们会，呃，对当地经济的贡献
You get this massive explosion in the indebtedness of China, 你在中国的债务，这个巨大的爆炸
and that debt is still rising. ，债务仍在上升
How does China manage the transition without becoming 中国是如何管理的转变而不会
too indebted in a very dangerous way? 太感激在一个非常危险的路吗？
HE EXHALES 他呼出
Let me put it this way. 让我这么说吧
We should focus on the way Chinese economy is moving from 我们应该关注的方式，中国经济正在从
the older model, which has served China's needs very well 旧的模式，这使中国的需要很好
over the last three decades, 过去30年，
to a new model which would fit into the 21st century. 这一新模式要适应21世纪
As ever, the Chinese government has a plan. 和以往一样，中国政府有一个计划
It's called "the great rebalancing." 这就是所谓的“伟大的平衡”
And maybe it's working here, 也可能是在这里工作，
in the booming tropical south. 在热带南美的繁荣
I've come to Guangdong province - 我来到了广东省的
the richest, most populous and most entrepreneurial part of China. 最富有的企业家，人口最多、最中国的一部分
The government wants Guangdong's two million private companies 政府希望广东两万私营企业
to lead the rebalancing 导致的平衡
by switching from cheap mass-market manufacturing 通过切换由大量廉价市场制造的
to making higher-quality products and proper international brands. 使更优质的产品及适当的国际品牌
China's biggest lighting company, NVC, is one of them 中国最大的照明公司，中心，就是其中之一
that's taking up Beijing's challenge. 这是带了北京的挑战
This is what it's all about - 这正是所有的
a hi-tech, advanced LED lighting production line. 一条高科技生产线，先进led照明
In response to the slowdown, Chinese companies 为应对经济放缓，中国公司
are doing what all good businesses do, which is to invest 是企业做得什么都好，就是要投资
in better, more sophisticated products 在更好，更复杂产品
and higher-tech manufacturing. 高科技制造
NVC now employs 500 workers in research and development. 在研究和发展中心现拥有员工500名员工
As it expands abroad, it'll challenge 国外扩展它，它会是一种挑战
our advanced manufacturers. 先进的生产厂家
Which is pretty scary news for us, although just what China needs. 这对我们是非常可怕的消息，尽管只是中国所需要的
But China doesn't just have to produce more upmarket stuff - 但是中国不要出更多高档东西
Chinese people have to spend more. 中国人不得不花费更多
China has to shift away from its reliance on investment-led growth, 中国已经转移到远离投资拉动型增长的依赖，
and it needs to prioritise households, consumers. ，它需要优先户，消费者
To become more like us - and really love shopping. -我们得越来越像，真的很喜欢购物
I always find these Chinese markets somewhat bewildering - 我总能找到这些中国市场有些扑朔迷离
there's so much choice. 有太多的选择
What we've got here is corn on the cob wars - 我们在这儿所得到的就是玉米棒子的战争
they are queuing on two sides of the road 他们队在路的两边
to buy this particular delicacy - corn on the cob dipped in batter. 想买这个特别美味的玉米棒蘸面糊
So I asked for spicy, and actually he did give that to me, 所以我要辣，他确实把那个给我
even though I didn't really think he understood what I was saying. 即使我真不觉得他明白我在说什么
So here it is, first mouthwatering deep-fried corn on the cob 所以这是，首先垂涎三尺的炸玉米棒子
of my life. 我的生活
MEN SHOUT IN BACKGROUND 男子喊的背景
Mm. Yummy. 嗯好吃
So all this is supposed to refuel China's economy. 所以这一切都是中国经济应该加油
But it isn't working. 但它不起作用
So we've got all the trappings of a consumer society, 所以我们已经有了所有的表面的消费社会，
loads of young people out having fun, some of them spending. 很多年轻人出来玩，其中一些开支
But they're not spending enough to prevent 但它们不够支出来防止
the economy from slowing down dangerously. 危险的经济放缓
I don't think China's economy would be crashing down. 我不认为中国经济会崩溃
It is not realistic to expect an emerging market economy 这是不现实的期待一个新兴市场经济
to sustain its fast growth over a decade, two decades, 来维持其快速增长超过十年，二十年，
three decades - it's not realistic. 三十年-这是不现实的
Slowing down is inevitable, but I am sure 慢下来是不可避免的，但我相信
the Chinese government is doing something proper 中国政府正在做正确的事情
to deal with this new pressure. 来处理这个新的压力
The stakes for the government couldn't be higher. 政府不能的风险会更高
Even in rich Guangdong, factories are now closing... 即使是在富裕现在广东、工厂关闭..
leaving workers out of a job and owed their salaries. 离开工人失业了，欠他们的薪水
But workers aren't taking this lying down. 但是工人不在这躺着
Over the past year, the number of strikes has doubled. 过去一年，罢工人数翻了一番
The police often get involved. Labour activists have been arrested. 警察经常参与劳动积极分子遭到逮捕
I'm meeting an activist prepared to take the risk 我遇见了一个积极准备承担的风险
of telling the world what's happening. 告诉世界发生了什么的
He took me on a tour of one of the more troubled factory districts. 他带我游览了更多陷入困境的厂区之一
How many factories that you've come across have gone bankrupt? 是你遇到几个工厂破产了吗？
Zhang Zhiru helps pressurise bosses to pay workers their due, 张zhiru帮助向劳动者支付应有的，老板施加压力
through public protests and strikes. 通过公共抗议和罢工
Yet again, what's going on seems much worse 又发生了什么，似乎更糟
than the authorities will admit. 比当局会承认
Because the big concern for China's Communist Party is that 因为中国的共产党的大问题是
social unrest could shake its grip on power. 社会动荡可能会动摇其对权力的掌控
To be honest, it's not something that people talk about 老实说，这不是说人们谈论
very much, because it's so sensitive. 非常多，因为它是如此敏感
I don't know that the Chinese population will accept 我知道中国的人口不会接受
years of slow or negative GDP growth. 来慢或负面的国内生产总值增长
There has to be some sort of 要有一种
social and political stability consequences of that. 社会和政治稳定的后果
I personally think there is no painless exit from this problem. 我个人认为没有无痛退出这个问题
If it's scary for the Chinese, what does China's slowdown mean 如果这是可怕的中国，中国经济增长放缓是什么意思
for the world and for us here in Britain? 在英国我们的世界，对吗？
You're likely looking at a prolonged slowdown 你可能看长期减速
in international trade, and that's especially true for 在国际贸易中，特别是正确的
a lot of the trading countries of Europe, 很多欧洲的贸易国家，
whether it's Germany, the UK... 不论是德国、英国..
And that's also going to be true 也就是要是真的
of a lot of the commodity producers in Africa and places like Australia. 很多商品的生产者在非洲和澳大利亚这样的地方
It's incredibly serious. 难以置信的严重
It means lower Chinese demand 这意味着中国需求减少
for all sorts of things, it also means less Chinese investment 为各种事情少，这也意味着中国投资
and less money flowing into the rest of the world economy, 和更少的钱流进了世界其他地区的经济，
so I think it's incredibly negative, 所以我认为它是非常消极，
but it's going to remain a protracted process. 但这将仍然是一个长期的过程
Shrinking global trade, 全球贸易萎缩，
slower global growth, 全球经济增长放缓，
fewer opportunities for British exporters. 英国出口商的机会越来越少
And it's worse than that for the UK's most prominent industry - 和它比那还糟的英国最著名的业界
our banks. 我们的银行
'There are two huge British banks - HSBC and Standard Chartered - "有两个巨大英国的汇丰和渣打银行
'whose fates are more closely tied “他们的命运是紧密相连
'to China than almost any other bank.' 中国比任何其他银行来'
What is the scale of Standard Chartered's exposure, what is the 的规模是什么standardchartered的曝光，是什么
scale of the lending that Standard Chartered has done in China? 规模的贷款，standardchartered在中国做了吗？
Yeah. Well, we have a very big business in China. 是的好吧，我们有一个很大的在华业务
Billions, tens of billions? 几十亿，上百亿吗？
Yeah, we have tens of billions so the bulk of our exposure, 是的，我们有几千的几十亿大部分的曝光，
the bulk of our lending in China is very short-term, 我们大部分的贷款在中国是很短期，
and it's to facilitate trade through the Chinese banks. 这是为了促进贸易便利化，通过中国银行
So if everything went very badly wrong in China, 所以，如果在中国一切都很严重的错误
there would be losses. 会有损失
Oh, of course, yeah, and we have losses today. 哦，当然，是的，我们今天有损失
Where we're feeling it most acutely already is in commodity prices. 我们感受最深的地方已经在大宗商品价格
And that's a big structural shift, because of course 这是一个大的结构性变化，因为当然
the world built the capacity to feed the beast 建立世界的能力养活的野兽
in terms of Chinese property expansion 中国房地产方面的扩张
and machinery expansion, 和机械扩张，
and that's now slowing down. So that's already happened. 那就是在减慢所以，已经发生了
Of course, it could get worse, I mean, markets are markets. 当然，我的意思是，变得更糟市场是市场
Standard Chartered, and even bigger HSBC, standardchartered，汇丰，甚至更大，
say they're strong enough to weather all but the most extreme 说他们是最极端的天气都足以
shock from China. 震撼来自中国
They have cut back lending, but still see opportunities 他们纷纷削减放贷，但仍看到机会
to make profits by focusing on consumers and private businesses. 以营利侧重于消费者和民营企业
TRUMPET FANFARE AND CHEERING 小号大张旗鼓，欢呼
But if our banks are now a bit more cautious about China, 但是，如果我们银行，中国现在有点更加谨慎
not so the UK government. 不是那么英国政府
Mr President, we have much reason to celebrate 总统先生，我们有很多理由来庆祝
the dynamic, growing economic relationship 动态的，不断增长的经济关系
between our countries. 我们两国之间
The Chinese economic miracle 中国经济奇迹的
is the story of my generation 是我们这一代人的故事
and probably my children's generation as well. 也可能是我孩子的代
That economy's growing, it's creating jobs, 经济的增长，这是创造就业机会的，
I want Britain to be part of it. and I think if we cut ourselves off 我想英国成为它的一部分，我想如果我们砍掉身上
from China, we're essentially cutting ourselves off 来自中国，我们上就要切掉自己
from the future. 来自未来
The Chancellor has hailed a new golden age 总理盛赞一个全新的黄金时代
for China-Britain relations. 中英关系的
More Chinese investment in Britain, 在英国，更多的中国投资
more opportunities for British businesses in China. 更多的机会留给英国企业在中国
The City of London is on a major drive to become 伦敦是一个主要的推动，成为
the leading international centre for trading the Chinese currency 中国货币的主导国际贸易中心
and Chinese debts. 和中国的债务
Good business, or mad, bad and dangerous to our prosperity? 疯了，很坏，而且危险或生意好，对我们的繁荣？
Well, perhaps both. 好吧，也许两者兼而有之
There will be good business for the City from opening up 会有好的业务从开放的城市
China's financial system, 中国的金融体系，
but deepening the UK's links to a country 但英国的深化联系到一个国家
still undergoing the biggest borrowing binge in history 仍处于历史上最大的借款狂潮
is, well...risky. 是啊..风险
Because if China becomes more connected to us 因为如果中国更连接到我们
before its economy stabilises, 在其经济稳定，
well then, its bust would be our bust. 那么，我们将其破产破产
Isn't there a risk, though, that if there is a great Chinese shock, 有没有风险，但是，如果中国有很大冲击，
that all we're doing is making ourselves 我们所做的一切是做自己
more vulnerable to that shock? 更容易受到冲击吗？
You know, there's no good claiming that London's going to be 你知道吗，没有一个很好的声称伦敦将会是
the centre of global finance if you're not engaged 如果你不是从事全球金融的中心
in trading with China and dealing with China's currency. 中国和中国进行贸易和处理的货币
We've also got very good regulators and a tough system in 我们有很好的监管制度和艰难的
the Bank of England that make sure we're constantly checking 英格兰银行的检查，确保我们不断
that we have got our house in order, we've got our economy secure. 为了房子，我们有，我们有我们的经济安全
The Chancellor points to Chinese promises of putting big money 财政问题对中国的承诺将一大笔钱
into Britain to show that his golden age is real. 到英国来表明他是真正的黄金时代
But the closer we stand to China, 但我们站到中国，越靠近
the more we'll feel the shocks 我们会感觉到更多的冲击
as good times turn bad. 好倍变坏的
I think it is a dangerous phenomenon, I mean, 我认为它是一个危险的现象，我的意思是，
I do think what is happening is that we've got a lot of governments 我认为我们必须要发生什么，是很多国家的政府
around the world that buy into the same story 世界各地，购买到相同的故事
that the Chinese government does, 政府做的中国，
which is that they can grow out of this problem. 这是因为他们能够出这个问题的
Well, look, China has big economic challenges, but from what 嗯，看，中国经济有很大挑战，但从什么
I can see they're, A - aware of these problems, and they are 我能看见他们的意识到，这些问题，而且他们
throwing a lot at it. 扔了它
And don't underestimate the amount of economic firepower 别低估了大量的经济火力
that the Chinese authorities can throw at their problem. 中国当局扔向自己的问题
Beijing engineered prosperity for its people 北京为人民的繁荣
on a scale no-one thought possible. 没有人认为可能的规模
Can it now manage the slowdown and avoid disaster? 现在能减速，避免的灾难吗？
China has enjoyed the longest, strongest boom 中国享有最长，最繁荣
of any important country in history. 历史上任何重要的国家
But what goes up inevitably comes down. 但是什么上去了必然会下降
And here's what matters to them and to us. 和对我们还有什么对他们来说是最重要的
The sooner the day of reckoning, the sooner its debts stop increasing 越快越遭报应的日子，债务越早停止增加
in a dangerous way, 在危险的方式，
the less calamitous that day of reckoning will be. 灾难，遭报应的日子将越少